Notes
Draft unconstrained air travel demand forecast presentation prepared by Steer for the Commercial Aviation Work Group (CAWG), presented April 28, 2026 in Moses Lake, Washington. Covers 17 Washington State commercial airports including SEA (Seattle-Tacoma International, 26.317M enplanements), GEG (Spokane International, 2.114M), PSC (Tri-Cities, 0.528M), PAE (Seattle Paine Field, 0.306M), BLI (Bellingham International, 0.226M), and smaller airports including PUW, EAT, YKM, ALW, BFI, FRD, TCM, ESD, KEH, FBS, RCE, and RNT. Total 2025 enplanements of 29.762 million across all airports. Methodology combines short-term bottom-up model (2025–2026 using OAG schedules and BTS T100 data) with top-down long-term unconstrained demand model using macroeconomic drivers (GDP, population, GDP per capita, airfares), traffic elasticities, market share assumptions, airline strategies, and airport expansion scenarios. Produced in support of the state second airport planning process.