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Washington State Unconstrained Forecast: Draft Presentation

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This draft report, prepared by the Commercial Aviation Work Group and consulting firm Steer, presents an unconstrained air travel demand forecast for Washington State's 17 busiest commercial airports, with Seattle-Tacoma International (SEA) accounting for the vast majority of the state's approximately 29.8 million enplaned passengers in 2025. The forecast combines a short-term bottom-up model based on airline schedules with a long-term top-down model driven by macroeconomic factors such as GDP, population, and airfares, ultimately producing airport-level traffic projections. While focused on statewide aviation demand planning, the findings have direct relevance to Sea-Tac noise policy discussions given SEA's dominant share of regional air traffic.

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Draft unconstrained air travel demand forecast presentation prepared by Steer for the Commercial Aviation Work Group (CAWG), presented April 28, 2026 in Moses Lake, Washington. Covers 17 Washington State commercial airports including SEA (Seattle-Tacoma International, 26.317M enplanements), GEG (Spokane International, 2.114M), PSC (Tri-Cities, 0.528M), PAE (Seattle Paine Field, 0.306M), BLI (Bellingham International, 0.226M), and smaller airports including PUW, EAT, YKM, ALW, BFI, FRD, TCM, ESD, KEH, FBS, RCE, and RNT. Total 2025 enplanements of 29.762 million across all airports. Methodology combines short-term bottom-up model (2025–2026 using OAG schedules and BTS T100 data) with top-down long-term unconstrained demand model using macroeconomic drivers (GDP, population, GDP per capita, airfares), traffic elasticities, market share assumptions, airline strategies, and airport expansion scenarios. Produced in support of the state second airport planning process.

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