Formal Comment by Jeffrey Bogen: Aircraft Seat Capacity Estimates and Fleet Upgauging in the Seattle-Area Metroplex (SAMP) Environmental Impact Statement

A Des Moines resident's formal comment on the Seattle-Area Metroplex Environmental Impact Statement argues that Sea-Tac Airport's official planning assumption — that average aircraft size will grow by only 0.5% per year — is mathematically incompatible with the airport's own goal of 56 million annual passengers by 2032. The comment shows that reaching that passenger target under the current assumption would require roughly 880,000 flights per year, far exceeding the airport's infrastructure ceiling of about 517,000 operations. The author contends that airlines like Alaska and Delta are already ordering larger aircraft and expanding international routes at Sea-Tac, meaning faster fleet upgauging is not a worst-case scenario but a necessity for the plan to make sense.

Notes

Formal SEPA comment filed by Jeffrey Bogen, Des Moines resident, dated May 28, 2026, on the Seattle-Area Metroplex (SAMP) Environmental Impact Statement. Argues that the SAMP’s assumption of 0.5 percent annual seat-per-departure growth (141 seats in 2023 to 148 seats by 2032) is arithmetically incompatible with the 56 million annual enplanement target at any realistic load factor, requiring approximately 880,000 annual operations — 1.7 times the infrastructure ceiling of ~517,000 operations. Analyzes post-baseline fleet developments by Alaska Airlines (105 Boeing 737-10 and 17 Boeing 787 orders, Tokyo Narita nonstop service) and Delta Air Lines (A330-900 transatlantic service to Rome and Barcelona, 60 Boeing 787-10 order, 18-gate long-term lease at Sea-Tac Airport). Proposes moderate (2.0%) and high (3.5%) seat growth scenarios as prerequisites for SAMP internal consistency. Includes Table 1 comparing SAMP baseline to revised scenarios. References Bogen (2026) SEA Airport Capacity Analysis Technical Appendix.

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