The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018

A 2021 scientific study found that global aviation contributes a small but meaningful share of human-caused climate change, primarily through carbon dioxide emissions and the formation of contrail clouds at high altitude. The research, covering the years 2000 to 2018, found that non-CO2 effects such as contrails account for roughly two-thirds of aviation's total warming impact. The findings are relevant to ongoing policy discussions about reducing the climate footprint of air travel.

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This peer-reviewed study presents a comprehensive quantitative evaluation of global aviation’s contributions to anthropogenic climate forcing from 2000 to 2018, calculating both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) for CO2, NOx, water vapor, contrail cirrus, and aerosol effects. For 2018, the net aviation ERF is estimated at +100.9 mW m−2, with contrail cirrus as the largest contributor followed by CO2 and NOx. Non-CO2 effects account for approximately 66% of the total aviation net ERF, and aviation overall contributes approximately 3.5% of net anthropogenic ERF.

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