This presentation, delivered on February 25, 2026, introduces the fundamentals of aviation forecasting as part of the airport planning process. It outlines how planners forecast passenger demand, aircraft operations, and automobile traffic, then identify physical, operational, and level-of-service constraints before developing and evaluating alternatives. The material emphasizes that while predicting future demand is inherently uncertain, structured forecasting is a critical first step in guiding airport infrastructure decisions.

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A presentation introducing aviation forecasting concepts for airport planning. Opens with Nils Bohr’s quote about prediction difficulties and outlines the airport planning process including demand forecasting for passengers, aircraft operations, and automobiles, identifying constraints, and developing alternatives.

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As the source for federal transportation grants, the Puget Sound Regional Council was charged with developing a system to meet the growing need for commercial aviation. When the search for a second airport failed, they authorized the Port of Seattle to build the Third Runway, with a mandate to develop a noise abatement and mitigation program. In their effort to stop the Third Runway, the ACC argued over every detail of the Port's efforts--including property buyouts and sound insulation. The dispute was meant to be settled by a three member Expert Arbitration Panel. This is their final report. It finds 2-1, that the Port's program was insufficient in several respects. Despite that, funding for the Third Runway was approved by the PSRC, and the 'Port Package' program, proceeded largely unchanged. Expert Arbitration Panel's final decision finding that the Port of Seattle had not shown sufficient reduction in real on-the-ground noise impacts to satisfy noise reduction conditions required for approval of a third runway at Sea-Tac International Airport. The majority decision concluded the Port's noise abatement programs were insufficient despite being impressive in scope.

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