Estimated Long-Term (1981−2016) Concentrations of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter across North America from Chemical Transport Modeling, Satellite Remote Sensing, and Ground-Based Measurements

Estimated Long-Term (1981−2016) Concentrations of Ambient Fine Particulate Matter across North America from Chemical Transport Modeling, Satellite Remote Sensing, and Ground-Based Measurements Jun Meng,*,† Chi Li,† Randall V. Martin,†,‡ Aaron van Donkelaar,† Perry Hystad,§ and Michael Brauer∥ †Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia B3H 4R2, Canada ‡Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, United States §College of Public Health and Human Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, United States ∥School of Population and Public Health, The University of British Columbia, 2206 East Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z3, Canada *S Supporting Information ABSTRACT: Accurate data concerning historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are needed to assess long-term changes in exposure and associated health risks. We estimated historical PM2.5 concentrations over North America from 1981 to 2016 for the first time by combining chemical transport modeling, satellite remote sensing, and ground-based measurements. We constrained and evaluated our estimates with direct ground-based PM2.5 measurements when available and otherwise with historical estimates of PM2.5 from PM10 measurements or total suspended particle (TSP) measurements. The estimated PM2.5 concentrations were generally consistent with direct ground-based PM2.5 measure- ments over their duration from 1988 onward (R2 = 0.6 to 0.85) and to a lesser extent with PM2.5 inferred from PM10 measurements from 1985 to 1998 (R2 = 0.5 to 0.6). The collocated comparison of the trends of population-weighted annual average PM2.5 from our estimates and ground-based measurements was highly consistent (RMSD = 0.66 μg m−3). The population-weighted…
V V