PSRC Regional Aviation Baseline Study Working Paper 3

R e g i o n a l A v i a t i o n B a s e l i n e S t u d y : W o r k i n g P a p e r 3 Development and Evaluation of Scenarios F I N A L 1-3 Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 STUDY PROCESS .............................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 STUDY STATUS AND NEXT STEPS ................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 ORGANIZATION OF WORKING PAPER 3 ........................................................................................................ 3 2. Development of Scenarios .................................................................................................. 4 2.1 SCENARIO 1, “BASELINE”: SEA-TAC IMPLEMENTS NEAR-TERM (2027) SAMP ............................................ 7 2.2 SCENARIO 2, “SEA-TAC IMPLEMENTS LONG-TERM (2037) VISION” ............................................................ 8 2.3 SCENARIO 3, “LONG-TERM VISION + ACCOMMODATE 50 PERCENT OF PROJECTED GAP” ....................... 8 2.4 SCENARIO 4, “LONG-TERM VISION + ACCOMMODATE 100 PERCENT OF PROJECTED GAP” ................... 10 3. Evaluation Criteria Overview ............................................................................................. 12 3.1 ABILITY TO ACCOMMODATE SINGLE OR PARALLEL RUNWAYS (7,000 OR 9,000 FEET) ........................... 12 3.2 EXISTING AIRSPACE CONSTRAINTS OR CONFLICTS ..................................................................................... 13 3.3 IMPACT TO SEA-TAC AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS ............................................................................................. 14 3.4 FLOOD ZONE HAZARD .................................................................................................................................. 14 3.5 CURRENT AND FUTURE ROADWAY AND TRANSIT ACCESS ........................................................................ 14 3.6 INCOMPATIBLE LAND USE WITHIN A MILE OF 7,000-FOOT OR 9,000-FOOT RUNWAY ENDS ................. 15 3.7 ABILITY TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS .......................................................... 15 3.8 IMPACT TO AEROPSPACE MANUFACTURING ............................................................................................. 15 3.9 POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT WITHIN 60 MINUTE DRIVE TIME ......................................................... 16 3.10 OWNERSHIP .................................................................................................................................................. 16 4. Airport Evaluation ............................................................................................................. 17 4.1 RUNWAY LENGTH ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................…
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